The Interocitor

What is China's Game?

This graphic of potential nuclear weapons states, while overwrought, states the problem well. If North Korea goes essentially unchecked in its nuclear weapons development, others are sure to follow. Whether it's Iran for its own reasons, or Japan or South Korea in reaction doesn't matter much. The perceived need, and the danger of actual use, goes up something like the square of those that have them.

Either the world powers put their foot down, hard, on North Korea, demonstrating that acquiring nuclear weapons decreases national security rather than enhancing it, or the world will have 20 or so nuclear states within the next two decades. Which is as sure a path to nuclear war as there is.

Problem is, China has all the cards. Short of a preemptive nuclear attack on North Korea, which is unlikely in the extreme, China has an effective veto on any attempt to bring down the North Korean state, as well as the power to accomplish it unilaterally. One would think that China sees this, and is equally aware that this is a test of its stature in world affairs. Yet they resist. Why? What do they want?

Two things come to mind. Either they want to use North Korea as a pawn to strike at the US, which I find hard to believe as the result would harm them, if indirectly.

Or they want Taiwan and hope we'll make the trade.

Something that is probably not lost on the Taiwanese. And of course, there's only one answer for that....

Posted by Kevin Murphy at October 14, 2006 11:40 PM | TrackBack