If Bush does pick up Iowa and New Mexico, where he leads, along with his go-ahead win in Ohio, he'll have 286 electoral votes to Kerry's 252. Barring any sudden reservoir of votes, he will win the popular vote 51-48 (with all others taking the other 1%).
I called it yesterday with the same electoral vote and the popular vote at 50-47-2. I got the spread right, but gave too much to Nader and the rest. Oh ,well.
And yes, I got that 286 with exactly those states.
p.s. I seem to have got these right, too.