The Field Poll has just issued two polls, one yesterday on most of the even-numbered propositions, and another on the health-care props (61, 63, 67, 71 & 72).
The results for Prop 66, gutting 3 Strikes, are changing rapidly -- Field noticed a massive change partway through their polling. Between October 21 & 24, the split was 58-34%, but those polled between October 25-27 had it 46-47%, slightly against. At this rate, Prop 66 should lose handily thanks to a raft of new ads on the subject featuring Arnold and others. When Governors Schwarzenegger, Davis, Wilson and Brown agree on something, one has to take notice.
Prop 62, the "modified open primary" initiative is still leading(40-38%), but it's support has declined 4 points this month and the undecideds are breaking against. More interestingly, Prop 60, the "write the current law into the Constitution" amendment is also leading, and by a bigger margin (42-28%) than the competing Prop 62, although 30% remain undecided on 60. If Prop 60 gets a higher percentage than 62, it prevails.
Prop 64, the "you can only sue if you're harmed" law appears to be losing as well (32-37%) with over 30% undecided. However, the undecideds have been breaking for "Yes" this past month, so the trend is towards passage.
Props 68 & 70 are losing big.
On the health-care front, Props 61 and 63, which issue bonds and tax millionaires respectively, have healthy majorities and look to pass. Prop 67, which taxes most voters, now has a bare majority against, and undecideds are breaking "No".
The stem-cell bond seems a winner, although the only reasonable argument for the state borrowing money for it (that it will create a stem-cell industry in CA) is well down the list of reasons given by supporters. That's two more bonds passing in a state drowning in debt. *sigh*
Prop 72, the referendum to ratify Grey Davis's health-care mandate on business is now failing (41-42%). It was 45-29% last month.
So, if present trends continue, the results may look like this:
Prop 60: Yes
Prop 61: Yes
Prop 62: No
Prop 63: Yes
Prop 64: Yes
Prop 66: No
Prop 67: No
Prop 68: No
Prop 70: No
Prop 71: Yes
Prop 72: No
Mixed news, but better than I was expecting just a week or two ago. I hope someone analyzes the impact the "millionaires" tax has on state revenue after it takes effect.
Posted by: Hank Fenster at October 31, 2004 10:31 AMGreat post! Thanks Kevin.
All in all I'd say the Props are breaking pretty well ... much better than I had dared hope.
If your tally comes true, my ownly major disappointment will be Prop 71, the 'Yipeeee!-Let's-Kill-More-of-the-Unborn' measure.
I'm ecstatic about the prospects of 66 going down to defeat. I'll pump my fist for joy if that one fails. I bet Patterico will have a party if it does ... and I wish I was invited. :-)