The latest Field Poll (PDF) shows the presidential race narrowing in California. Kerry leads, but by only seven points (49-42%). The party breakdown of the sample is 44D-36R-20. Considering that polls in California consistantly overstate the Democrat's final numbers in statewide elections, there may be a shot here if there is a good Republican vs Democrat turnout.
As before, the numbers indicate that over half of Kerry's voters (43-52%) are anti-Bush rather than pro-Kerry, while Bush's voters are strongly pro-Bush. As a result, there may be different-than-normal motivations for turnout.
A long shot? Probably. But it seems a lot less of one than last month.
Here in CA I've been hearing quite a few ads criticizing Kerry's stance on partial birth abortion. I was wondering why they were bothering, but maybe you're right that the state is potentially in play. That, or they want to force Kerry to spend money here answering the charge.
Posted by: Hank Fenster at October 29, 2004 01:33 PMOr, it may be that they just want to pad the popular vote, for reasons that need no explaining.
Posted by: Kevin Murphy at October 29, 2004 02:14 PMIf Bush takes California, we're talking a Reaganesque landslide.
Would I love to see it? Oh, more than you know! Do I expect to see it? Not a chance in the world.
Posted by: clark at October 29, 2004 09:36 PMA Bush landslide? yes. Reganeasque? No. But a landslide nontheless. My beloved California? Just pray.