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October 03, 2004

Kerry: Advocate of Korean Genocide

By all accounts North Korea has 3-5 Hiroshima-yield fission bombs. If recently reprocessed plutonium has been weaponized (as the North Koreans claim) they may have as many as 10. North Korea also has missles quite capable of hitting any target in Japan or South Korea with a plutonium bomb (although maybe not with a heavier uranium bomb). They also have 13,000 deeply entrenched artillery tubes within striking distance of the South Korean capital of Seoul, and have had 50 years to dig them in. They have threatened to obliterate Seoul with this artillery should a new conflict erupt, and have the capability to do it in short order. There are no good ways to prevent this by conventional means. They have also threatened to strike Japan and US forces with nuclear weapons in the event of war. This deterrence is credible, and the conventional threat alone deterred the Clinton administration from reacting to the North Korean nuclear program in the mid 90's, especially after Jimmy Carter crafted a deal that (literally) papered over the crisis.

As we now know, the North Koreans honored that deal in the breach, refraining from producing plutonium bombs, but ramping up a parallel program to make (less-optimal) uranium bombs, of which they now have several. When the US called them on it, the North Koreans just used this new nuclear shield to begin production of plutonium bombs. There was little the US could do, short of a disastrous war which would kill a million South Koreans and destroy South Korea's capital. North Korea would be obliterated in the process, but that isn't satisfactory either. Hydrogen bombs don't lend themselves to tactical strikes, kill indiscriminately, and have effects far beyond the intended targets.

Primarily in response to this situation (and other potential situations) the Bush administration reviewed the US war-fighting strategy and arsenal and determined that a new class of weapons was desperately needed: low-yield (possbily subkiloton) ground-penetrating fission weapons. Congress agreed, and the US is now researching and possbily developing such devices.

Kerry opposes them utterly.

"As president, I will stop this administration's program to develop a whole new generation of bunker-busting nuclear bombs," Kerry told a crowd of supporters in West Palm Beach, Fla. "This is a weapon we don't need. And it undermines our credibility in persuading other nations. What kind of message does it send when we're asking other countries not to develop nuclear weapons but developing new ones ourselves?"
Should war come with North Korea, say after a North Korean nuke is sold to al Qaeda and blows up in New York Harbor, will the US be able to respond, defending both itself and Seoul, without widespread civilian losses? If Bush prevails, the US might have two alternatives, under Kerry only one.

The common scenario, lacking low-yield weapons, would be a massive H-bomb strike, killing 10s of millions of civilians, causing widespread fallout over a wide area (including portions of China, Russia, South Korea and possibly Japan), and the utter destruction of North Korea as a place. There is some doubt that a President Kerry (or indeed any US President) would be willing to do this.

The Bush scenario would be to have these bunker-busters MIRVed onto sub or silo based ICBMs, penetrating the ground via sheer kenetic energy (5,000 MPH or so) and exploding at maybe 300 meters down with a force of 500-1000 tons of TNT. Shorter-range methods would also be possible (e.g. missiles fired from B-2s), but would take considerably longer to deploy. Imagine an "undergound nuclear test" type explosion, rather than Eniwetok or Bikini. This would allow destruction of entrenched fields of artillery as well as command-and-control and weapon storage sites, and could occur within an hour of commencement of hostilities. Civilian casualties, fallout, and destruction of civilian infrastructure would be minimized.

Failure to respond would be equally unthinkable, and conventional responses would be unsatisfactory in the face of nuclear blackmail against Japan and South Korea.

Given all this, Senator Kerry's "plan" to abjure bunker-buster weapons seems to be a plan for a Korean genocide. Unless he is a complete idiot, he should know this. Apparently, he intends to solve the issue with bilateral negotiations, but he neglects the all-important "or else". He doesn't have one, other than an unbelievable threat of genocide.

Wishful thinking? Fuzzy thinking? A plan for appeasement and isolation? You decide. But in any case not a plan that he can possibly defend to the American people once the implications are made clear. Luckily for him the American press won't force him to, and the Administration doesn't want to either. Too bad, because I think the American people are quite capable of making tough choices, if only someone would level with them.

See the bunker-buster symposium over at Hugh Hewitt's site.

Posted by Kevin Murphy at October 3, 2004 11:25 AM | TrackBack