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It is quite likely now that the US Constitution will be amended, quite possibly before the November election, to bar gay marriages. The actual proposed amendment (from thomas.loc.gov; H.J. Res 56/S.J. Res 26) is:
Marriage in the United States shall consist only of the union of a man and a woman. Neither this Constitution or the constitution of any State, nor state or federal law, shall be construed to require that marital status or the legal incidents thereof be conferred upon unmarried couples or groups.Most readings of this sugggest that this prevents Congress or any state legislature or initiative from enacting any law that allows other than "one man and one woman" from entering into matrimony. Some think it merely prevents judicial activism. I think the former is unfortunately correct.
It's not going to happen...nada...it would require 2/3 of the Senate, for starters, and that means all the Republicans (and they aren't all for it), and 1/3 of the Democrats (and hardly any are for it!)
Then, it has to go through the ratification process, which is not going to take 5 months...the ERA took the better part of a decade before it was shot down.
cheshirecat
That prediction is based on the assumption that people like Newsom will commit further provocations.
Note that both the House and Senate passed the DoM act overwhelmingly, and this is an election year. Note also that the 18-year-old-vote Amendment passed in a few months. The process can be surprisingly quick if the will is there.
However, I suspect that, if an Amendment clears Congress, it will be substantially reqorked from the current proposal, and will not bar state legislative action. The primary discomfort is with state and feneral court activists.
I expect something more along these lines:
Neither this Constitution or the constitution of any State, nor state or federal law, shall be construed, in the absence of specific language, to require that marital status or the legal incidents thereof be conferred upon unmarried couples or groups, or to unions other than that between one man and one woman.
Note that I oppose the current FMA proposal. I'm just really upset with the gay activist's belief that pushing and shoving will help their cause.