Predictions for 2004
Well, everyone else is doing it, so let me channel Jeanne Dixon and see what's in store.
- After Howard Dean wins several early primaries, Hillary Clinton will enter the race at the urging of centrist Democrats. Dean's momentum will falter, but he'll still take the nomination at a divided Convention. His VP will come from the Democrat Left, possibly Nancy Pelosi.
- Osama bin Laden will be killed by US commandos attempting an arrest, and his body will be positively identified. Several other high-ranking al Qaeda members will be captured alive in the raid. After questioning, they will be tried by military tribunal and hanged. Bush will be roundly criticized by the Left for this barbarism.
- Colin Powell will resign as Secretary of State, effective January 2005. In mid-summer Dick Cheney will withdraw his name as VP candidate, for health reasons, and be replaced by an African-American at the September convention, straining the Democrat coalition.
- With a robust economy bouyed with the unexpected re-emergence of a strong Internet sector, George Bush will be re-elected with well over 60% of the popular vote, losing only the District of Columbia.
- The Republicans will gain 5 Senate seats and 23 House seats, mostly in the old South.
- Nader will run and come in fourth, behind the Libertarians, with less than 0.5% of the vote.
- There will be a major al Quada attack that fails, and several car bombings in American cities that succeed.
- Ronald Reagan will die, as will Margaret Thatcher. Bush will stop campaigning to attend both funerals, as will many others on both sides of the aisle. Howard Dean will attend neither, and speak ill of Reagan the day before the funeral.
- Robert Mugabe will pre-empt the inevitable civil war in Zimbabwe by interning most white citizens and appropriating their property. A number of his black opponents will disappear. Conditions for internees will be horrible, with a sizable death toll and rumors of summary executions. Near the end of the year, Britain will intervene, deposing Mugabe in amazingly short order, but saddling themselves with guerrilla activity and a difficult reconstruction. The UN General Assembly will condemn Britain for racism and neo-colonialism. The US will back Blair 100%, joining the UK's veto of several French-sponsored UN Security Council resolutions.
- Saddam Hussein, and most of the Ba'athist heirarchy, will be convicted of genocide and mass murder, and publicly hanged by the new Iraqi government.
Posted by Kevin Murphy at December 31, 2003 05:27 PM
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