The Interocitor

Recall Madness

I see that various people on the Left are calling for Recalling Arnold. Where do I sign? No -- I don't want to see Arnold voted out of office. Hardly. I just think it's such a complete mistake that I'm willing to help them make it.

Can they get enough signers? They need 12% of the number of voters in the last gubernatorial election. This may or may not be the one just past -- the Secretary of State thinks so though, so we'll go with that. 7.7 million votes * 0.12 = 924K valid signatures, give or take. This is, by the way, more that twice the number needed (5%) for an initiative, which itself isn't easy.

They'll need some money but there's lots of Hollywood money, so that's not a problem. Must be someone in Hollywood that hates. They will use paid signature gatherers, or they will fail.

When can they start? Not until Arnold is in office, I'm pretty sure, but there is no other limitation -- although a careful misreading of the law could justify some delaying lawsuits, but I digress. Probably have a couple of weeks of set-up time (petition approval, SecState blessings, stamps, seals, etc). OK, now it's at least Nov 1, 2003. They'll have 160 days to get their signatures. April 10, 2004.

Now, when should they aim for the election? March 2 would be good -- lots of Democrats voting for Dean or maybe Hillary by then. So, need to be done no later than 60 days before March 2nd -- done, counted and certified. January 2nd. Lousy timing, what? Realistically that means the signatures all need to be turned in by early December. So, 30 days, or so, to get 1.3 million signatures. Not Bloody Likely. It took Costa and Issa 90 days or so. So, can't have March 2nd. Pity.

What to avoid? November 2nd, I think, because if it does piss people off, that's the single worst time to have people pissed off -- they have many ways to make you pay -- voting for Bush, other Republicans, and all of Arnold's initiatives, say.

So, any date after March 2nd, but before the Presidential election. Of course, to avoid the recall being moved to the next regular election within 180 days (i.e. Nov 2) that means that everything has to be done and certified 181 days before November 2nd. Which is to say: no later than May 5. So everything needs to be in the bag by, to be safe, April 10. Sounds about right. Better get cracking. This just might work. Election in July-August.

But of course, being Democrats, you'll get started sometime in January or February, get done in May or June, the recall will be in November, and it will completely annoy 80% of the voters, and they will retaliate.

And this is why I'll so happily sign the thing.

Update: aphrael thinks another recall will backfire as well