You hear this question again and again. The answer could be never ... he could keep on running until 2006. But more realistically, he will either get a large boost very, very soon, or he will quit and let Arnold have it. (BTW: Arnold would be smart to offer Tom the Budget Director job and a free hand, and soon).
Tom's polling numbers show that he has low negatives and high "who 'dats". So he has been in as many debates as possible, trying to expose his clear understanding of the budget and calm personal nature to the voters whom -- almost all - ignore politics 99.9% of the time. People who saw Wednesdays debates as their intro to the recall election have GOT to come away with a good impression of McClintock, at least those who would consider voting Republican.
Is this enough? Are these same newly-interested voters going to reject Arnold on the basis of his performance. Probably not -- many of them came in pre-sold on Arnold and the "buzz." That makes it tough for Tom, as Arnold probably, despite my gut feelings, did not actually self-destruct.
So, let the pollsters go forth. If this weekend's numbers say McClintock is still a distant 3rd, he has to quit and pray that Arnold won't botch the job. OTOH, if the polls show it 30-30-25 or somesuch, Tom's in it to the end.
And I'd LOVE to see a poll that asks the Bustamente v McClintock 2-person question. So would Patterico. Everyone has an opinion on this except the pollsters.
Posted by Kevin Murphy at September 25, 2003 03:04 PM | TrackBackThe CalChamber did. Tommyboy loses like Simon and Lungren before him.
Posted by: boifromtroy at September 25, 2003 05:27 PMI think Tom's numbers will drop. People seem to be looking for reasons not to vote for Arnold, rather than reasons to for McClintock. Arnold didn't exactly shine, but he didn't tank it either, so I think he gains.
My other suspicion is that the 'newly-interested voter's' will tend to fall on the other side of the aisle from McClintock - or right in the middle. But that's totally a personal bias.
Posted by: Kurt at September 25, 2003 08:41 PMYou say that "realistically, he will either get a large boost very, very soon, or he will quit and let Arnold have it." As much as I like McClintock, the realistic part of me hopes you're right. But you have to admit he's doing a damn good imitation of someone who's never dropping out, and damn the consequences.
Posted by: Patterico at September 25, 2003 09:31 PMThe ABC/Fox/etc. poll suggests that more viewers thought Arnold won the debate than Tom did, and by a double-digit margin. Tom may have won under the rules of the Harvard Debate Society, and he may have won in the minds of the average politically-minded blogger (including me), but he doesn't seem to have won by any other standard. He certainly didn't win by the margin he would have needed to have a realistic chance of coming in second place, much less first, on October 7.
Posted by: Xrlq at September 26, 2003 10:27 AM